Some scattered thoughts about NFL Championship Sunday:
Winning vs. Survival: What can we really take out of both of these games? The Harbaugh brothers had each of their teams ready to play on Sunday, and the Giants and Patriots were both thrown off from what they usually do well, which is score lots of points. Both the Ravens and 49ers set themselves up in position to win until goofs by Billy Cundiff and Kyle Williams cost them bigtime. Both the Giants and the Patriots took advantage of mistakes by the other team and survived. Neither team was overwhelmingly brilliant, although Eli Manning’s unwavering nature was never more important to the outcome of a game. The 49ers pressured him all day, and sacked him six times. But they never could get him to make a crucial mistake that would cost the Giants the game. His ability to stay tough and grind through this one elevated his stature in the NFL once again. Besides being one of the best quarterbacks in the league, he now has to be considered one of the toughest.
How I Met Joe Flacco: Is Joe Flacco the Josh Radnor of football? He’s a decent quarterback, but it seems like he isn’t anything special. He’s adequate enough not to bring the entire operation down with him, but he doesn’t ever do anything that makes us think that we’re watching somebody special. How I Met Your Mother succeeds because of Neil Patrick Harris and Jason Segel above all else, despite Radnor being the main character on the show. If Radnor stars in a new show after HIMYM ends, not only would I not be inclined to watch it, but I don’t see a reason the show would succeed unless he had another strong supporting cast. If Flacco was on a worse team, I doubt he’d have the talent to carry them to victory. But occassionally, Radnor has episodes where he’s great, and Flacco played very well yesterday against the Patriots. Unfortunately, Billy Cundiff, the Robin’s Haircut of the Ravens, came along and brought down the whole operation. Better luck next time, Joe. And the How I Met Your Mother gang would never let him get away with that goatee.
Contact Low: Why is Illegal Contact still an automatic first down? That’s an outdated rule. A five yard penalty that can be called so freely shouldn’t swing a game like it could have yesterday. The Giants had stopped the 49ers on 3rd and 19 when they were called for it, and it could have played a major role in how the game ended. It’s a dumb rule, and should be changed.
Two Fox Notes: Can we stop with the reverse jinx statistics? Every time they showed the stat that the 49ers were oh-for-whatever on 3rd down I was convinced they were going to convert it. And haven’t we had enough of Frank Caliendo? The guy hasn’t done a relevant impression in years. Haven’t we seen enough of George Bush, John Madden and Jack Nicholson? Let’s add to the repertoire there, Frankie boy. And stop laughing like buffoons when they cut back from him, Jimmy Johnson and Terry Bradshaw. You look like morons.
State of the NFL, with Ed Hochuli: Wasn’t it wonderful to have a ref thoughtfully explaining out every call like Ed Hochuli did yesterday? It was a pleasure to have such an articulate guy reffing the game. The NFL should make their refs go to improv classes during the offseason.
The New Big 3: Is there a better three wide receivers in the NFL than Hakeem Nicks, Victor Cruz and Mario Manningham? Each have made big play after big play for the Giants. When they lost Steve Smith and Kevin Boss in the offseason and Dominick Hixon went down injured (no shocker there), people assumed the Giants wouldn’t have enough receivers to spread the field for Eli Manning. Well, Nicks and Cruz have proven to be elite receivers, and Manningham (or Mario ManningGoingHAM, as my cowriter Allen Pines put it) is making a case for a big contract after the Super Bowl. I can’t think of another team with that kind of talent at the wide receiver position. Watching the three of them celebrate together after the Manningham touchdown was a thing of beauty.
Opponents in the Two Runs: A quick ranking of the teams that the Giants have faced in their two recent runs to the Super Bowl, based both on how they were perceived before the game and what happened in the game itself.
8. 2007 Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Chris Simms at QB. Not too intimidating.
7. 2011 Atlanta Falcons: Overmatched on the road. Are we sure Matt Ryan is good?
6. 2011 San Francisco 49ers: A ferocious defense and a well coached team. In a very close game, their youth caused just enough mistakes for the Giants to prevail.
5. 2007 Dallas Cowboys: The best year for Romo and TO fell apart in this game against the Giants. This was Eli’s first game where we saw how unflappable he is. It was also the beginning of the end for Owens. He was never the same after this.
4. 2007 Green Bay Packers: A hard-nosed team in freezing weather. Tom Coughlin may still have frostbite. But Brett Favre may have been a bit past his prime for bigtime games like these in freezing conditions by 2007. This was the final game number 4 played for the green and gold in Lambeau.
3. 2011 New England Patriots: Brady and Belichick will be on a mission for revenge, and Rob Gronkowski is a tremendous matchup problem for Perry Fewell and the Giants’ defense to solve. We’ll see.
2. 2011 Green Bay Packers: The defending champion, 15-1 Packers were sure to be nearly impossible for the Giants to beat. But the hot team beat the #1 seed as the Giants controlled Aaron Rodgers and made enough big plays to go to San Francisco.
1. 2007 New England Patriots: Helmet catch. It has to be #1. As Morgan Freeman says in the Visa commercials, this Super Bowl in two weeks will be ‘The Most Epic Day of the Year’.
Harbaugh Family Dinner: A scene at the Harbaugh dinner table, in the near future:
John: Fucking kickers.
Jim: Fucking kick returners.
Both: Fuck.
January 23, 2012 · Filed under NFL
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After a terrifying lockout, a short training camp, nineteen long weeks, a fantasy season that went down in flames (at least for me), people around the nation saying words strung together like “Is Ryan Fitzpatrick an elite NFL quarterback?”, checking on Antonio Gates’ foot more than I checked on any part of my body, John Beck over Rex Grossman, debating picking up and dropping Darius Heyward-Bey in fantasy football approximately 800 times, waiting for the Frank Gore injury that never came, yelling ‘Where Wallace At?’ after every Mike Wallace touchdown, figuring out that Jordy Nelson doesn’t have to play like Wes Welker just because he’s white, cursing the name Chris Johnson, sucking for Luck, learning how to spell ‘Gronkowski’ with the rest of America, and Tebowing, we’re finally here. NFL Championship Weekend. Four teams remain, with two going to warm and scenic Indianapolis for a chance at glory. Home teams in Caps.
PATRIOTS (-7.5) vs Ravens
Why the Ravens will win: They have the better of the two defenses, and they pressure Tom Brady enough to make him uncomfortable. Ray Rice explodes for a huge run to start the game and set the pace. They beat the Patriots in Foxboro two years ago in the playoffs, and may have the Patriots’ number. Joe Flacco avoids making any critical mistakes, and puts up enough points to hold off a charging Brady.
Why the Patriots will win: Because they’re the better team. The gap between the two offenses is far greater than the gap between the defenses. The Ravens don’t have a single player that can make the kinds of plays that Brady, Gronkowski, Wes Welker or Aaron Hernandez can make on any down. The Pats’ defense, as Ed Reed would put it, rattles Flacco. The home field advantage is too much for the Ravens, a team notoriously better at home than on the road, to overcome.
Verdict: Outside of Ray Rice, the one difference maker on the Ravens, lighting it up, I can’t see a way that the Pats blow this. Not only are they the more talented team, but the Ravens are banged up and survived a bloodbath last week at home against Houston. The Patriots were done playing hard by halftime. The Patriots have too many weapons to be stopped, and the Ravens’ age, fatigue and road issues will show here. The Pats coast to Indy. Patriots 38, Ravens 20
49ERS (-2.5) vs. Giants
Why the Giants will win: Because they may be the team of destiny. Comparisons between this team and the 2007 Giants and 2010 Packers have been floating around all week, and they’re not unfounded. The Giants have the best four-man pass rush left in the playoffs led by Justin Tuck and Jason Pierre-Paul, and if Aaron Rodgers couldn’t control it, Alex Smith will likely have trouble too. Eli Manning, Hakeem Nicks and Victor Cruz are play makers that can put up six points quickly from any area of the field. The other parts of the team are serviceable enough that the aforementioned guys can carry this team to two more victories. Tom Coughlin knows how to win playoff games, and the G-men have the momentum to carry the tidal wave into the Super Bowl.
Why the 49ers will win: Because if they control the game, it’s theirs for the taking. They have the better defense on the whole and the better running game with Frank Gore. There’s a chance the game is played in a massive rainstorm, and if so the game will slow down. That could help a 49ers team that will hope to keep the score as low as possible. The 49ers are well coached, will have a rabid fan base behind them, and will look to force the Giants to make mistakes. It looks goofy to throw this in as a main reason for a victory, but having a battle-tested kicker in David Akers could swing a tight game. If the game is close at the end, the Niners may have a big advantage. My comparison of the Giants to the 2008 Eagles proves true, as the Giants lose to an overlooked NFC West champion.
Verdict: This one is an absolute toss-up. The Giants won’t be thrown off guard by playing on the road like the Saints were. The key to this game will be Eli Manning. He may not be the single most talented QB in the league, but he gets rattled the least. And the 49ers game plan will be all about getting him to make mistakes. He’s proven that, despite his issues with it during practice this week, he can stomach the harshest of environments. The game will be tight, but Manning has proven time and time again that he can handle it. He pulls off another miracle, and we all get the Super Bowl 42 rematch we’ve been licking our chops for. Giants 26, 49ers 23
January 20, 2012 · Filed under NFL
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For weeks leading up to Sunday’s Golden Globes, NBC hyped the show as the return of Ricky Gervais to the very stage where he got in a heap of trouble a year ago. Last year, Gervais’ candor and biting criticisms of the film industry offended many, achieved a new level of fame for Gervais, and made the Golden Globes more relevant than they’ve been in years. While there was some backlash to the performance, Gervais was viewed as a voice of the people that was unafraid to speak his mind. Here was someone that could wage war against the system that he was a part of, even if it cost him some fans.
Before becoming this rebellious voice of the people, though, Gervais built his career in the same way that most people in Hollywood do. He worked for years at honing his craft, and got his chance at stardom when he created the original British version of “The Office” on BBC. While the show only ran for two seasons and a TV movie, which was his decision, it became a massive hit. He licensed the creations of other versions in different countries, and served as a producer on all of them. The American version, starring Steve Carell, grew into a major success, and Gervais raked in money from all over the world, as multiple versions of the show were hits. He turned his newfound semi-stardom into a long-standing relationship with HBO, where he created his next series, “Extras”, turned his popular podcast into an animated series, and produced two stand up specials. He made a few movies that fared poorly, but they increased his exposure, nonetheless. That led to his two-year run as host of the Golden Globes in 2010 and 2011, which made him a household name once and for all. After his scorched-earth jokes in the latter performance, his audience wondered what he would do next.
The fact that Gervais signed on to host again this year was a surprise, and possibly a missed warning sign. His smug guest column in Entertainment Weekly, in which he tried to explain his 2011 jokes and comedy in general, may have been one as well. Despite promos that depicted Gervais as a ruthless comedian and quite possibly the devil, his performance on Sunday night was rather tame. He didn’t make a single joke that made anyone particularly uncomfortable; instead, he tossed gentle grenades at easy targets like Justin Bieber and Kim Kardashian. He briefly insulted the Hollywood Foreign Press Association, who gives out the awards, but even those weren’t particularly offensive. Instead, for all of the hype and “Yeah, I said it!” smirks on Gervais’ face, all we got was a pedestrian hosting performance. While Gervais’ demeanor tried to convince us that he was crossing boundaries and saying naughty things, less ‘edgy’ comedians like Billy Crystal have said far more risky things than anything that came out of Gervais’ mouth. This was the sizzle without the steak, and I’d be hard-pressed to find a single person who thought that Gervais’ hosting performance was anything worth being offended over. The only water cooler talk that came from Gervais was about his lack of water cooler material.
Much like Gervais, WWE Champion CM Punk worked very hard to get to the lofty position he enjoys today. He grew up in Illinois wanting to be a wrestler, and honed his craft in small wrestling promotions in the south for years before joining Ring of Honor, a fairly well known wrestling company, but far smaller than the WWE. After working there for three years, he developed a reputation amongst dedicated wrestling fans as being one of the best technical wrestlers in the industry, and the WWE signed him to a developmental contract. He wrestled in Ohio Valley Wrestling, the WWE’s minor leagues, for two years before becoming a full-time member of the WWE. While he achieved success in his first five years in the company, including winning the now-defunct ECW title and World Heavyweight Championship, he never reached the level of stardom that wrestlers like John Cena, Randy Orton and others enjoyed.
But in the summer of 2011, he finally gained wide notoriety, not for his wrestling skills, but for his candid remarks on the microphone. He stated during an episode of Monday Night Raw that his contract was running out after the WWE Pay-per-view on July 17th, and that he was leaving after his title match that night due to how poorly he was being used. While the ‘I’m leaving the company’ storyline has been used before by the WWE, this one was actually true. Punk legitimately didn’t have a contract past that Pay-per-view, befuddling people who troll the Internet for real-life backstage scoops as to what would happen next. In the ensuing weeks, he went on several impressive tirades that straddled the lines of what was part of the ‘fake’ wrestling universe and what was reality. He called John Cena and Hulk Hogan ass kissers, referred to Stephanie McMahon and Triple H (McMahon’s husband) as ‘idiotic doofuses’, said that Vince McMahon surrounds himself with douchebag yes-men, and pondered if the WWE would be better off once Vince McMahon was dead. He made fun of the WWE’s floundering stock, and demanded that the popular ice cream bars of the 90s be brought back. The fans lapped it up.
While showing off microphone skills that could rival any WWE wrestler’s in the history of the company, Punk crossed so many lines that fans didn’t know what was part of the faux-reality that the WWE works tirelessly to create and what was the honest truth. In the passing weeks, Punk continued to light up the screen with his antics, going on more tirades, invading WWE’s Comic-Con panel, and wrestling in an all-time classic match with John Cena at the aforementioned Pay-per-view. The sizable portion of intelligent wrestling fans that watch WWE shows but don’t necessarily root for the people that the WWE tries to force down their throat could feel the magic in the air. Punk, who called himself “The Voice of the Voiceless”, was their new hero.
But as the weeks went on, and the dust settled from the memorable Summer of Punk, things stayed the same. Punk re-signed with the WWE after a few weeks, and with the new contract, some of that magic was gone. Vince McMahon was replaced as Chief Operating Officer of the WWE by Triple H, in a story that felt fake and far from the reality that Punk had tried to live in. Eventually, Triple H ceded control to John Laurinaitis, one of the ‘douchebag yes-men’ that Punk referred to months earlier. Since taking over the position of Interim Raw General Manager in October, Laurinitis has, in reality, done a very good job. Raw has been as entertaining in recent weeks as it’s been in years, due to a stable of young, energetic wrestlers, including Daniel Bryan, Zack Ryder, Cody Rhodes, Dolph Ziggler, the Funkasaurus, Brodus Clay, and others.
Instead of coming to grips with this, though, Punk has stayed in the mold that he created for himself over the summer. He insults Laurinaitis every week for seemingly pointless reasons, under the guise that he’s speaking the truth while everyone else is playing a part in an overriding story. Punk earned his reputation by being realistically angry about actual problems in the WWE world, and not the ones created by the WWE’s writing staff. But Punk’s become every bit as much of a persona as the other wrestlers have.
It all come to a head on this past Monday night’s Raw. Punk flipped out again on Laurinaitis, a fake character, for reversing the winner of his non-title match, a fake issue that Punk shouldn’t have been upset about. His title wasn’t in jeopardy, so there was no real reason to be mad that he lost his match. When he unloaded on Laurinaitis after the bout, it was without the level of detachment and irony that Punk established in the last year. He seemed angry, in the same unconvincing way that John Cena seems angry every week. The edginess and coolness that he had was gone. He fit right in with the rest of the system.
The failings of both Gervais and Punk may not be the faults of the performers themselves. Each of them are extremely talented in their own right, and those skills led them to a position of high exposure. But while they each got to a level of prominence with their abilities, only when they decided to rebel against their system did they achieve truly widespread recognition. While each of them captured the attention of a large audience for a certain amount of time, they felt pressure afterwards to keep doing the same things instead of adapting.
We live in a world where a popular movie guarantees two sequels afterwards, yet if those movies are carbon copies of the first one, they will be critically reviled. It’s the reason why the second “Hangover” movie and this season of “The Office” have been lambasted by critics. They both stuck too close to what made their earlier incarnations successful. On the other hand, movies like “The Dark Knight” and TV series like “The Wire” and “Friday Night Lights” were praised for their abilities to challenge and change what made them successful in the first place and adapt to the natural progressions of their stories. Punk and Gervais are in the tricky spot of having to keep rebelling to appease a part of their audience that has come to expect it, but if they go too far, it will feel forced compared to how they started.
The larger problem for both men is that they’ve both gotten what they want. When Gervais started out, he was a schlubby, chubby British guy that nobody could imagine as a part of Hollywood as we know it. But over time, he lost weight and was presentable enough that he starred in two movies, “Ghost Town” and “The Invention of Lying”, as the romantic lead. By hosting the Golden Globes three times, he’s clearly a part of the acting fraternity. He has no reason not to live a very happy, glamorous life.
For Punk, as recently as six months ago, he felt disrespected by the fact that while he was the best wrestler in the world, lesser talents were the ones consistently winning WWE championships and receiving the adoration of WWE fans. But Punk has now been the WWE champion for two months, his T-shirts are popping up everywhere, and he’s as popular in the WWE universe as any wrestler working today. He wanted to be the man, and now he’s very much the man.
For both men, their rages against their respective machines worked. They each were victorious in their rebellions. But once those revolutions are over, what’s left for them to do?
January 18, 2012 · Filed under Pop Culture
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Defense and Coaching Wins Championships…Until the Quarterback Needs To Do It
For the first 56 minutes of the 49ers/Saints game on Saturday, the game went exactly according to the script that had the 49ers winning the game. Drew Brees had his moments, but the stingy defense, thorough gameplan and reasonably effective offense of the 49ers had given them a 23-17 lead with four minutes to play. For all of the gusto of Drew Brees’ passing records and the Saints’ ridiculous play at home, the traditional strategy employed by the 49ers was winning out. But then, frankly, sh*t got crazy. Drew Brees checked down a 44 yard touchdown to the sneaky Darren Sproles, giving the Saints a 1 point lead with three minutes and change to play. That put the game in Alex Smith’s hands, and after a big play to Vernon Davis, he scrambled into the end zone from 28 yards out on a QB draw to give the 49ers another lead. Since the 49ers were only down a point, it may have made sense for Smith to slide down instead of scoring the touchdown in order to keep the clock running. The 49ers would have been able to run the ball a few times, and with the Saints only having one timeout left, San Francisco’s ace kicker, David Akers, would have been able to make a gimmie field goal with seconds left to win the game. But in the heat of the moment, Smith went for the score. Certainly understandable.
Brees answered with a 66 yard strike to Jimmy Graham with 97 seconds remaining to give the Saints a 32-29 lead, and after a frantic drive that put the 49ers in field goal range, Smith won the game with a touchdown throw to Vernon Davis, the hero of the game, with nine seconds remaining. The 49ers managed to win the game by playing their style of football for the vast majority of the game, but more importantly, by being able to adapt to the Saints’ style of shootout football when the game was on the line. While Alex Smith wasn’t called upon to deliver the win for the first 56 minutes, he came through when he was needed. The ability to adapt so quickly to a fast change in game style makes the 49ers very dangerous as the playoffs move forward. They’ve proven that they can win any type of game, which will make the planning for the Giants much more difficult.
Having a great defense and a coach that knows how to prepare is still very important for winning games. But having a quarterback that can deliver when absolutely necessary is essential. Alex Smith is proving that he can be counted on.
Other Notes from Round 2
-The Giants are going to be mighty tough for anyone to beat. But we knew that already. As a Giants fan, I’m concerned about a letdown for the game in San Francisco. Obviously, there should never be a letdown when a trip to the Super Bowl is at stake. But the game in Green Bay felt like a traditional playoff game. The Frozen Tundra. The cold weather. The loud Packers fans. The weather will surely be warmer in California next week, and the large amount of Giants fans transplants in California may lead to a sizable rooting section for Big Blue. Will the game feel like a foregone conclusion to the players? Hopefully, with all of the inevitable talk about this being the Team of Destiny, and the talking heads that will compare this Giants team to the one in 2008 and the Packers of last year, this upcoming game won’t feel like an afterthought. Because a Jim Harbaugh team won’t roll over quietly.
-The Tebow run came to an unfortunate, ugly end Saturday night in Foxboro, as Tom Brady trampled all over the overmatched Broncos. The win over the Steelers was the crowing moment of Tebowmania, at least so far. As Brady moves on to likely beat up on the Ravens, it’s time to evaluate where Tebow stands. Next year will be the true test for Tebow’s lasting value as an NFL quarterback. He’ll, for the first time, have a full offseason to prepare as an incumbent starting QB for a team without having to worry about a competition. While that could make him better, it’ll also give the rest of the league a full offseason to study tapes of him and figure out a way to stop his unorthodox style. If he can lead the Broncos to the playoffs once again next year, he’ll have ingrained himelf as a long-term starting QB in the NFL. If not, the doubters will once again spruce up.
-Tip for bettors out there: never lay more than 3 or 4 points with Joe Flacco. Ever. As I wrote on Friday, I had a bet that if the Texans beat the Ravens, I’d have to watch every episode of “Whitney”. I don’t think I’ve ever been more nervous watching a game. While the Ravens were the better team, Flacco’s incompetence made for a nerve-wracking three hours. Thankfully, my bet didn’t involve the point spread, but if it did, the half point loss would have been crushing. Until Flacco proves that he can lead an offense, I have no faith in him. I’d much rather have Alex Smith leading an offense down the field, and I didn’t think I’d be saying that a few months ago.
A few Golden Globes notes to wrap up:
-Modern Family has reached the point where the show has won so many awards that they can screw around with their awards speeches. When they started winning awards, the cast and creators gave heartfelt speeches about how much they loved making the show. Now, they can have Sofia Vergara speak in Spanish and have creator Steve Levitan muse about how the writers need to get laid. It’s a nice place for a show to get to. 30 Rock got there in 2009, when Tina Fey started letting Tracy Morgan accept awards for the show. When a show can reach Tracy Morgan status, it’s truly arrived.
-One of my favorite games to play during the Golden Globes is finding the connections between the presenters and the nominated movies that they’re presenting a clip of. For example, Johnny Depp was a producer of Hugo, for a simple one. Brad Pitt and George Clooney, good friends, presented each other’s movies. Robert Downey Jr. memorably played silent film icon Charlie Chaplin, so he presented The Artist, this year’s silent film that’s piling up awards. So… why exactly did Queen Latifah introduce The Help?
- Is it me, or did the women look particularly good last night? I didn’t notice any real fashion disasters. Paula Patton, Salma Hayek, Jessica Alba, Katharine McPhee, Charlize Theron… wow. A nice after-dinner mint of sorts for the NFL weekend.
January 16, 2012 · Filed under NFL, Pop Culture
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A few NHL/NBA thoughts before we get to the NFL Round 2 picks:
- I know that as a Magic fan, I’m supposed to care about Dwight Howard’s 45 point, 23 rebound performance last night, and that he set an NBA record by going to the free throw line 39 times. But I can’t bring myself to even remotely care. As long as the Howard contract situation is unresolved, and the Magic don’t have the pieces to win a title this year, good start notwithstanding, I can’t get into this team or the league in general. What’s my motivation to care, when the team’s foundation will likely fall apart in a matter of months? Get ready for an awkward and uncomfortable All-Star Weekend in Orlando next month, NBA fans.
- I didn’t have time to write an impassioned plea for Dan Girardi to make the NHL All-Star team this week, but needless to say, I was thrilled to see that he made it onto the roster. He’s been the anchor of the Rangers’ defense the entire season, and the team would have likely crumbled without him. He doesn’t have the stats that some other players have, but the fact that he leads the NHL in ice team speaks volumes by itself. It’s nice to see that strong play that doesn’t necessarily reflect on the scoresheet can be rewarded.
-Were Canadiens fans upset that the now exiled to Calgary Mike Cammalleri said that the Canadiens “play like losers”, or that he didn’t say it in French?
Onto Week 2 of the NFL Playoffs, where the true contenders for the Super Bowl will truly emerge. I’ll make the case for each team winning their game, and then come to a final verdict. Home teams in caps.
49ERS (+3.5) vs. Saints
Why the Saints will win: Drew Brees’ offense has been the best in all of football this year. Brees obliterated the record for passing yards in a season, and his entire offense is healthy. While Brees has had a strong arsenal of passing weapons for years, he finally has a legitimate running offense to go along with it this year. Darren Sproles has become one of the most important players on the team, Pierre Thomas is healthy, and Chris Ivory would start at running back for quite a few teams. If Brees and co. get going, and the defense creates a turnover or two, the Saints could win this one easily. A strong start on offense would put pressure on Alex Smith to catch up to the mighty Brees, which seems like an awfully daunting task for a quarterback making his first playoff start.
Why the 49ers will win: Jim Harbaugh will have his team ready to go for this one. His intensity has been reflected on the field all season, and there’s no reason to think that the 49ers won’t be at their very best. The 49ers have the best run defense in football, meaning that Drew Brees will have to win the game with his arm. He can certainly do that, but the 49ers may be able to put pressure on him, which is something that hasn’t happened of late. If the game stays close, Frank Gore, who’s finally healthy late in a season, will be able to make an impact running the ball. The 49ers have a strong tight end in Vernon Davis, and a great kicker in David Akers. Most importantly, taking the Saints out of the Superdome could make quite a difference in the Saints team that we see. For as impressive as Brees has looked at home, the Saints’ loss to a Seahawks team in the playoffs that was far inferior to this 49ers team still lingers in the mind. If the 49ers get off to a strong start, don’t let Brees go crazy, and manage the game with the running game and defense as the second half progresses, this is a winnable game.
Verdict: The Saints have put up gaudy numbers at home, and if they win this game, they’ll be virtually unbeatable in the championship game if the Giants pull off an upset. But this 49ers team matches up well with the Saints. As long as the 49ers dictate how the game is played, I see our first mini-upet of the weekend. 49ers 27, Saints 21
PATRIOTS (-13.5) vs. Broncos
Why the Broncos will win: Tebow Magic, baby! I thought it might be gone forever after the debacles against the Bills and Chiefs, but it was back in force last week. If the Broncos defense can keep things competitive, and Tebow Time hits in the 4th quarter…do you really want to bet or root against the upset and our possible lord and savior?
Why the Patriots will win: Tebow Magic, baby. SportsCenter did an entire hour on only Tebow on Thursday. Not a segment. Not two segments. An. Entire. Hour. Do you think that Brady and Belichick didn’t see that? Won’t they have extra motivation to shut up the hype machine that prompted the Worldwide Leader to have a non-stop Tebow love-in for a full hour? The Patriots are the more talented team here, they beat the Broncos badly a month ago, and they’ll be fired up to end the Tebow discussion, once and for all. This isn’t the Broncos’ fault, since they haven’t said anything inflammatory all week, but the national media may have poked the bear in Boston. Who’s stopping Aaron Hernandez and Rob Gronkowski on the Broncos? The win over the Steelers was impressive by the Denver. No doubt. But Tebow will have to keep scoring all game to keep up with Tom Brady, which he might not be able to do.
Verdict: I’m going to take the easy way out again this week, much like I did last week. 13.5 is a lot of points to give to the Broncos, and I believe that they’ll cover that spread. But Brady and his offense is too talented for Tebow to match. I’ll be rooting for Tebow, since this kind of story doesn’t happen too often, but I don’t believe he’ll be able to pull out this win. That being said: if the Broncos win this game, I will pick them to beat either the Ravens or Texans next week. I just don’t see them getting there. Patriots 31, Broncos 23
RAVENS (-6.5) vs. Texans
Why the Texans will win: You can make the argument that Arian Foster is the best remaining running back in the playoffs, and Andre Johnson is getting closer to healthy. The Texans’ defense is tough, and could cause problems for the jittery at times Joe Flacco. The Ravens have been flat in a few games this year, and it’s possible that happens in this one, where very few people are giving the Texans a chance.
Why the Ravens will win: Do you really want to bet on TJ Yates beating the Ravens’ defense in Baltimore? Didn’t think so. Ray Rice is a star, the Ravens’ offense can put up enough points to win, and it’s hard to believe that the Texans will score the points necessary to compete here. This one could become a blowout, quickly.
Verdict: Anyone picking the Texans in this one could feel like fools very quickly if the Ravens take over like I think they will. In each of the last three years, the Ravens have blown out inferior division champions (the smoke-and-mirrors Pennington Dolphins, a mediocre Patriots, and the flukey Chiefs). Without the Steelers standing in their way, they’ll be ready to pounce in this one. Ravens 34, Texans 14
(Side note: I have a bet with one of my friends on this game. If the Ravens win, he has to watch season 3 of Friday Night Lights, one of the greatest shows in TV history, within the next month. If the Texans win, I’ll have to watch every episode of Whitney in the same amount of time. Ray Lewis, you had better be ready.)
PACKERS (-7.5) vs. Giants
Why the Giants will win: The Giants are the hot team in the playoffs right now. They had to work hard to get in, and embarrassed a very solid Falcons team last week. They have the tools to beat the vaunted Packers. They have arguably the best pass rush in the league, and the same can be said for their top two wide receivers. Eli Manning is playing the best football of his career, and actually has more playoff experience in Lambeau Field than Aaron Rodgers does. The Giants have played better football on the road than at home all season, and gave the Packers quite a game a month ago. If the Giants are the team of destiny, this would be a win to remember. The Giants are a confident team, and if they get off to a strong start, anything can happen here.
Why the Packers will win: What have the Packers done to get people to start doubting them? Aaron Rodgers right now is the best player in football, and with Greg Jennings back, his team is fully healthy. The Packers were by far the best team in football for the first three months of the season, and even beat a Lions team that desperately wanted to win and avoid the Saints in Week 17 while resting Rodgers. While everyone’s talked about Tim Tebow and the Giants’ resurgance, the Packers have quietly been getting ready to run through the playoffs again. And, oh right, they haven’t lost at home since October 2010. Couldn’t you see this one being 14-0 Packers after the first seven minutes? All of us that picked the Giants and doubted just how good this Packers team is will have felt mighty stupid if that’s the case.
Verdict: The strongest case for picking the Giants is that they beat the Pats in the Super Bowl, so they can win this one. Crazier things have happened, right? The analogies can certainly be made between that historic game and this one. The Giants have the tools to neutralize Rodgers, Jennings and Nelson just like they did to Brady, Moss and Welker. But that was a once-in-a-lifetime game. The Giants did the unthinkable that night in Arizona, and to assume that they’ll definitely do it again is unfair to both this Packers team and the legacy of the 2007 Giants. The Giants have it within their capabilities to keep this game close and to win it. In fact, I’ll take the points here. But to discount the vast talents of the Packers would be very foolish. The Packers have been the better team the entire season, and it would be wrong to assume the Giants will win this one just because they happened to pull off a bigger upset four years ago. Yes, crazier things have happened. But that doesn’t stop a Giants upset from still being pretty damn crazy. Packers 35, Giants 31
January 13, 2012 · Filed under NFL
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